Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Bull's Eye Investing

Recently, Mr Cho (曹仁超) of Hong Kong Economic Journal (信報) - a highly respected investor in Hong Kong - has highly recommended Bull's Eye Investing Strategy as the right investment strategy for the present and coming stock market which should be more appropriate that the long adopted Buy-and-Hold strategy.

The Bull's Eye Investing Strategy was proposed by John Mauldin in his book "Bull's Eye Investing - Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market" published in 2004. In his book, he has illustrated a lot of statistics from differnt aspects to suggest that the coming 20 or more years will be a secular bear market. In this period, the performance of stock market will be similar to the period of Dow Jones performance from 1964 to 1981 within which the Dow Jones Index just moved within a range and posed a gain of around one-tenth of 1 percent though the GDP actually grew 373 percent. Therefore, he has pointed out that investors should focus on absolute return instead of relative return and adopted the Bull's Eye Investing Strategy.

Then what exactly Bull's Eye Investing Strategy is? In page 262 of his book, John has summarized this strategy with a few words as below :

"The essence of Bull's Eye Investing is quite simple. Target your investments to where the market is going, not to where it has been. Steady, stable, sure. Buying something that is undervalued, perhaps grossly undervalued, and waiting for the value to be seen by others is the way to real returns. Buying what everyone else is buying, after it has already risen in value, is why most investors simply do poorly"

To me, Bull's Eye Investing is simply another form of value investing. The key is still buy something which is undervalued. However, should we stick with the Buy-and-Hold strategy? In this issue, I have a different view from Mr Cho with the following reasons :

1. John's book is mainly focused on US stock market for which the future performance will be different from Hong Kong and China stock market. Even John himself also suggested investors to diversify their investments in other market other that US market. To me, the future of Hong Kong stock market should be on the Chinese enterprises which have a bright future of development. The China enconomy is now similar to the Hong Kong enconomy in the 70's and great development and change is expected to come. Buy-and-Hold strategy will be very suitable for this kind of market. We have already had many examples in Hong Kong that even a general citizen can accumulate huge amount of wealth from 70's up to now with this strategy.

2. Value investing is more focused on selecting the right company to invest. As Warren Buffet has said, you should treat yourself as one of the owner when you buy the shares of a company and prosper together with its future development. Simply focus on overall performance of stock market is not the key to value investment. Buy-and-Hold also does not mean you buy the stock and hold it. You have to do your own analysis and buy the stock when it is undervalued. Therefore Buy-and Hold strategy should still be the right strategy for value investing in any form of market.



At 6:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hi HK blogger,

i am unable to reach you via email, coz there is no here.

for the past months, i have been reading your blog and wish to invite you to join us in our forum community ... (it is quite a small niche of traders and investors from singapore and china)

hence, will you be willing to share with us your opinions [insights] on the HK Stockpicks?

here's our Forum link:

hope to see you there,

At 8:48 AM, Blogger (^oo^) bad girl (^oo^) said...

Very good......


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