Monday, December 25, 2006

2007 Hong Kong Stock Recommendation - Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd (1888)

Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd (1888)

Background :
Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd is a subsidiary spinned off from Kingboard Chemical Group (148) which focuses in manufacture and sales of laminates and upstream component materials.

1. Is the industry has a growing demand? What is the relationship between demand and supply in the industry?
Ans : The demand for laminates is driven by the demand for PCB. The global laminates market was estimated to have a growth rate of 6~8% in the coming 2 years. The growth rate of China laminates market is around 20~30% in the past 3 years. This means the industry is still in a growing state. With the launch of Microsoft Vista and 3G in China, the demand for PCB is expected to increase in the coming years which in turn will increase the demand for laminates. Kingboard was rated no 1 in 2005 with 9.9% market share in global market and 31.7% in China market. With the large scale of economy, the company can achieve the cost competitive advantage stated by Michael Porter and gain greater market share in the future. In its growth to a larger capacity, it also creates greater barrier for new competitors to enter this industry.

2. Is the company profitable over a period of time and what are their average revenue and profit growth rates?
Ans : The company is profitable for the year 2003~2005 with a profit growth of 158%, 5.8% respectively. The half year result of 2006 has a growth of 58.4% over 2005. The revenue growth for the year 2003~2005 is 56.8% and 31.6% repectively. The company has experienced hard time in 2005 but the growth will continue in the coming future which is reflected in the half year result of it. The gross profit margins from 2003~2005 are maintained in a healthy state with figures of 23.9%, 33.1%, 28.3% respectively. The half year 2006 GP margin is 29.6%.

3. What is the company raising money for? Paying debts? Future development? etc
ANS: 60% of fund raised used for further development of factory production capacity in China. 30% of fund used for paying loans. 10% for working capital.

4. What are the major risk factors when investing in this company?
ANS:
a) The capacity of the company has reached nearly full operation. Its future growth relies on the increase of its capacity.
b) Rise in cost of raw material will damage its profit margin.
c) The tax examptions from Chinese government for some of its subsidiaries will expire in the coming years.
d) Management issues happen to Ocean Grands Chemicals Holdings Ltd may also happen to this company.

5. Are there any odd numbers in their financial statements?
ANS: Not yet find any odd numbers. But the debt rate is high in the past which can be improved after its IPO.

6. Is the IPO price reasonable when compared to its expected profits and dividends? Is it valuable when compared to those companies already get listed?
Ans : The IPO PE is a bit high when compared with other industrial company but it is quite difficult to compare with other companies in the same industry as many of the large competitors in the industry are subsidiaries of large electronics companies for which the results of individual subsidiary is not presented separately. For the dividend, Kingboard is expected to pay not less than 30% of its profits as dividend each year. With the forcast provided by the company for 2006 will not be less than 1623.8 million, the dividend yield will be around 1.95% at minimum. Not very attractive from dividend yield.

7. Find out some key ratios for study such as ROE, ROA, PE, PB, Debt to Equity ratio etc.

Ans:
ROE : 22.62% (2005)
ROA : 8.62% (2005)
PE : 15.4 (estimated 2006 PE based on HK$8.32 closing price on 29/12/2006)
(Assumption : Full 2006 profit : HK$0.54)
Debt to Equity Ratio : 162.3% (2005)
Gross Profit Margin : 29.6% (half year 2006)

As stated before, the debt ratio is quite high before IPO.

8. Any strategic investors? Which investment bank is the underwriter?
Ans : Two rich people in Hong Kong Mr. Cheng Yu Tung and Mr Lau Luen Hung have expressed intersts in buying the IPOs but no further information are disclosed that they have holdings in the company. Goldman Sachs is the underwriter and coordinator which has a good track record in the past.

9. Other Considered Factory

a) The company management have a good track record in managing the parent company of Kingboard Laminates. The chairman has stated the management target for Kingboard laminates is to double its revenues in the coming 5 years and seek proper acquisition opportunites to expand.
b) Kingboard Laminates is the most profitable part of Kingboard Chemical Group, its parent company. Its spin off for one reason is to lower the debt of Kingboard Chemical Group which provides a good opportunity for the market to have a more profitable investment. Spin off of subsidiary is one of the good factor as stated by Peter Lynch in investment.
c) The IPO price is set at HK$7.73 which is around US$1 for which it is clear to set the target for institutional investor holdings.
d) The Kingboard Chemical Group still holds 72.5% of Kingboard Laminates and the shares in the market after over-allocation is 825 million shares representing a market value of hong kong dollar 6.864 billion (calculated based on the closing price of HK$8.32 on 29/12/2006) which is not huge when institutional investors starting to buy its shares. However, the attitude of institutional investors to invest in such small medium enterprise may be affected by the issues happened to Ocean Grand Chemical Holdings Ltd. in 2006.

Conclusion :
After weighing the pros and cons of the company, I still believe that Kingboard Laminates Holdings Ltd (1888) is a company suitable for LONG TERM BUY and HOLD. See if it can be a "tenbagger" in the long run!

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Sunday, December 24, 2006

Reading Prospectus (con't)

In this section, we will take a newly listed company in Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year as an example for further explanation. We will use those data taken from its prospectus for analysis. This company is :

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited (2689) - abbrev : ND Paper

Questions :

1. Is the industry has a growing demand? What is the relationship between demand and supply in the industry?
Ans : Yes, the industry has a growing demand. In the "Industry Overview" section, the company has provided a clear picture of the demand and supply relationship in the industry. The consumption of containerboard has exceeded its domestic consumption in the past five years and this trend is forecasted to continue at least to 2009. Furthermore, the entry barrier is this industry is high as it requires huge capital investment to install new production line. At the moment of IPO, ND Paper is at the highest volume in the country. This has provided them a great advantage. Even an average company can perform well in a growthing industry.

2. Is the company profitable over a period of time and what are their average revenue and profit growth rates?
Ans : In the "Summary" section, you can find that the company has an average revenue and profit growth rates of 46.6% and 65.7%. The profitable trend have continued for the past years. Such growth is exceptionally good.

3. What is the company raising money for? Paying debts? Future development? etc
Ans : You may find the answer in both the "Summary" and "Future Plans and Use of Proceeds" sections. Not more than 55% of capital used for establishing new production lines. Not more than 35% used for paying short term loans and the remaining used as general working capital.

4. What are the major risk factors when investing in this company?
Ans : These information are located in both "Summary" and "Risk factors" sections. Most of them are general statements. However, one point should be noted that the major supply of recovered paper is controlled in the hand of its chairman for which this supplying company is not included in the IPO. This means that the profitability of the listed company is controlled in the hands of its chairman who can earn her own money by adjusting the price of supplying recovered paper. Besides those listed, you should also pay attention to the type of management of this company which gives hints in the "Directors, senior managements and employees". Most of the top management are relatives of its chairman for which a family business may induce problem in its long term development.

5. Are there any odd numbers in their financial statements?
Ans : After reading the "Financial Information" section, it does not show any very odd numbers but the debt ratio of the company is exceptionally high. This may be the reason why they need to issue IPO instead of running as a private company.

6. Is the IPO price reasonable when compared to its expected profits and dividends? Is it valuable when compared to those companies already get listed?
Ans : In the "Summary" section, the company has provided a forecast of expected profit in the past half year. The expected PE is 13.6 if the IPO is set at its highest price. This is quite reasonable when compared with Lee & Man Paper (2314) which was trading at around expected PE ratio of 14 at the time of ND Paper IPO.

7. Find out some key ratios for study such as ROE, ROA, PE, PB, Debt to Equity ratio etc.
Ans : Some of the key ratios are listed below :

ROE : 13.7% (Year 2005)
ROA : 2.7% (Year 2005)
PE : 13.6 (expected)
Gearing Ratio : 53.4%
Net Borrowings to Equity Ratio : 212.7%

From the above, it is clear that the company is not operating in a highly effective way and has a high debt ratio. But the growing industry and IPO may improve these figures in the future.

8. Any strategic investors? Which investment bank is the underwriter?
Ans : The strategic investors are listed is "The Corporate Investors" section. There are three corporate investors including Ample Glory Limited (Mr Kuok Hock Nien), Chow Tai Fuk Nominee Limited (Dr Cheng Yu Tung) and Bestfull Limited (Dr Lee Shau Kee). They are solely investors but not involve in the company's management and Dr Lee has a good track record as being a strategic investor. The coordinator and underwriter of ND paper are BNP Paribas Peregrine and Merill Lynch which also give good track record in IPOs.

From the above, the analysis of ND paper is positive in IPO and this also explains why this company has a huge gain after its IPO.

Remember : Even an average company can perform well in a growthing industry.

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Friday, December 22, 2006

Reading Prospectus

One of our reader has raised a question about which key factors of the listed prospectus of IPOs investors should pay attention to. I have to admit that with so many Chinese companies get listed in Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it is quite difficult for investors to study all thoroughly. However, I would like to stress on the point that investment is not an easy task. Remember earning money is very difficult and losing money is very easy. Therefore, investors should at least have a basic idea of the company before investing money in it.
In actual sitautions, it is very difficult to use one single method to analyse different companies because different companies and industries have their own characteristics. Anyway, I would like to share some brief reading skills of prospectus here. Normally a standard prospectus should consist of the following sections :
1. Expected Timetable
2. Summary
3. Risk Factors
4. Corporate Information
5. Industry Overview
6. Future Plans and Use of Proceeds
7. Financial Information including accountants' report and detailed financial statements.
If you have limited time, the most important section you should look at is the "Summary" section. In this section, the company will give a brief introduction of the other sections of the prospectus such as risk factors, industry and company overview and consolidated financial statements. With these information, you can have a brief idea of what the company are doing and performing. Furthermore, while you are reading the summary information, you may have further questions which you would like the company to answer. Generally, these questions can be answered in the following sections of the prospectus and you can just flip to the related section to find the answer. For example, you may find the expenses of certain category has dropped significantly before getting listed. You can flip to the "Financial Information" section which is well indexed for different expenses and you can find it out for yourself. In this way, you can read the prospectus more effectively and efficiently.
Normally, I will have certain questions to be answered before reading a prospectus and these questions help me to analysis whether the IPO is valuable to be invested :
1. Is the industry has a growing demand? What is the relationship between demand and supply in the industry?
2. Is the company profitable over a period of time and what are their average revenue and profit growth rates?
3. What is the company raising money for? Paying debts? Future development? etc
4. What are the major risk factors when investing in this company?
5. Are there any odd numbers in their financial statements?
6. Is the IPO price reasonable when compared to its expected profits and dividends? Is it valuable when compared to those companies already get listed?
7. Find out some key ratios for study such as ROE, ROA, PE, PB, Debt to Equity ratio etc.
8. Any strategic investors? Which investment bank is the underwriter?
If you can answer all the above questions, you will have a thorough idea of whether to invest in the IPO or not.
In the coming blogs, I will give some real examples for further explanations.

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